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For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.

Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

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Push Gaming is targeting players who value pace and predictability

That Mega sits close to the game’s overall ceiling. Flaming Streaks caps out at 1,150x the bet on a low-volatility math model, with the top RTP configuration reaching 96.35%. Those figures place the game firmly in low-risk, frequent-return territory rather than the volatile, big-multiplier design that defines much of the modern slots market.

The significance is in the pairing. By building both bonuses around guaranteed payouts and a capped jackpot structure, Push Gaming is targeting players who value pace and predictability over the drawn-out variance of high-ceiling releases.

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Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.